Monday, October 29, 2007

Picks Against the Spread - Week 9

Last week: 6-7
Season to date: 26-41-2

Game of the Week

  • New England@ Indianapolis (+6) - No secret here. This is the game of the week/season/decade/modern era. The defending Super Bowl champions haven't lost a game this season and they are still an underdog at home. What's crazy is that it makes sense. I think this game will be a tie and down the road they will need to flip a coin to determine who gets home field advantage for the playoffs. I'm also picking the Colts win outright by a score of 34-31.
The Rest
  • Carolina @ Tennessee (-4)
  • Cincinnati @ Buffalo (+1)
  • Denver (+3) @ Detroit
  • Green Bay (+2) @ Kansas City
  • Jacksonville @ New Orleans (-3.5)
  • San Diego (-7) @ Minnesota
  • San Francisco @ Atlanta (-3)
  • Washington (-3.5) @ New York Jets
  • Arizona @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)
  • Seattle (+1.5) @ Cleveland
  • Houston (+3) @ Oakland
  • Dallas (-3) @ Philadelphia
Monday Night Football
  • Baltimore (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh - The Ravens defense should keep it close but the offense will have a tough time getting things going against the Steelers defense. In the end, Big Ben and Co. will make one more big play to win the game. Steelers 20, Ravens 13
Bonus Pick
  • Miami vs. Idle (-3) - If there is any team to figure out how to lose a bye week, it's this years 'Phins. In all seriousness, if Cam and Co. don't select John Beck as their starting QB for week ten, it's as bad as a loss.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Giants 13, Dolphins 10

Cheers to Ted Ginn for getting his first career touchdown! But, it wasn't enough of course. Here is why we lost.

  • Missed field goal on opening drive
  • Cleo Lemon's fumble before the half to gift the Giants another field goal
  • Dolphins had 2nd and goal from the two yard line and only get a field goal after a broken play
If you turn those few plays around it would be a ten point differential in a game we lost by three. There were just too many key mistakes to overcome. A tip of the hat to Jesse Chatman, who I've doubted, for playing tough and producing. You like to see that kind of attitude in a player when your team is struggling.

I'll do a full recap tomorrow. For now, I need to get a drink.

Gameday Week 8 - Preview and Prediction

When the Giants have the ball...

The Dolphins are screwed. The Giants have several offensive weapons that the defense will not be able to match up with. Plaxico Burress is otherworldly and Eli Manning doesn't hesitate to throw to him because even if he is covered, he will likely make the catch. Also, Jeremy Shockey, from da 'U,' is someone no linebacker can cover. If he is involved in the game and not dropping balls it could be a long day. Overall, unless we get a good pash rush (perhaps by blitzing sometime this century) and disguise our coverages well, it will be a high scoring affair.

When the Dolphins have the ball...

They must be able to run the ball with whatever lineup of running backs they use. I imagine Jesse Chatman will get the bulk of load with a possibility of seeing Patrick Cobbs or recently aquired Samkon Gado for a series or two. The offensive line must protect the passer. Here's a hint, double team Osi Umenyiora. Finally, if we are to have a chance, we can't turn the ball over.

Prediction

Giants 31, Dolphins 23 - It'll be within reach but New York is better and unless they make mistakes they will win the game.

I'd love to hear the British announcers calling this game for BBC but we are stuck with Fox. Maybe we can get some internet videos of this after the game before the NFL gets them removed.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Beating the Dolphins, A Curse?

How many times have you said after watching another Dolphins loss, "That team (the Dolphins' opponent) is happy and thinks they are good but they really aren't. They were just able to beat the worst team in the NFL this year and shouldn't really get their hopes up."

It first happened to me after the Jets game in week three. The Jets were able to build an 18 point second half lead due to poor special teams and defense by Miami but had to recover an onside kick to preserve a 31-28 victory. The Jets, who foolishly had playoff aspirations this year, then stood at 1-2 and seemed to be getting back on track. Since that game, they have lost four in a row, three to teams that are currently 2-4. New York is currently 1-6

The next week we faced Oakland at home in what most thought would easily be our first victory. Instead more terrible defense and timely giveaways gave the Raiders a win to get to 2-2 and have people talking about their resurgence. Since then, they had a bye week and lost to San Diego and Kansas City. Oakland is currently 2-4

In week five we should have beaten the Texans, but we stalled five yards out of field goal range, punted, the defense let Houston drive 60 yards in a minute and half to get a game winning 57 yard field goal. Again even though Houston needed some miraculous field goal kicking to save a game at home against the leagues worst, they got noticed and were talked about challenging for a playoff spot this year. But, since then, like the Raiders they have lost two straight division games and now sit at 3-4.

In total, the Jets, Raiders and Texans records since their defeat of the Dolphins, 0-8.

We can't write about Cleveland yet, as they have only had a bye week since playing the Dolphins. They do play the Rams this week though, so they could buck this trend.

Speaking of trend-bucking, the last team we played is the Patriots, and they won't lose a game, much less go on a losing streak, could they?

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Picks Against the Spread - Week 8

Last week: 7-7
Season to date: 20-34-2

Dolphins This Week

  • New York Giants vs. Miami (+9.5) (in London) - New York has won five in a row while Miami has dropped ten straight. Maybe the change of scenery will help the 'Phins, or hurt the Giants. A full preview and prediction will follow later this week.
The Rest
  • Cleveland @ St. Louis (+3)- The Cavs made the NBA Finals. The Indians were a game away from the World Series. The Browns, well, they are on pace for eight wins, but can they keep it up?
  • Detroit @ Chicago (-5) - The Bears need another win to keep the momentum going. The Lions haven't played well on the road.
  • Indianapolis (-6.5) @ Carolina - The Panthers are 4-2 but their opponents to date have a combines record of 13-28. This could be a big statement win or they will remain stuck in NFC mediocrity
  • Oakland @ Tennessee (-7.5) - The Raiders are one of the teams that looked great beating the Dolphins but are finding out they still aren't good. The Titans are this years, "find a way to win team."
  • Philadelphia @ Minnesota (+1) - Why can't the Eagles win? The Vikings defense gave the team a great chance to win in Dallas but they couldn't
  • Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati - This should reveal if the Steelers aren't as good as we thought or if the Bengals aren't as bad as we thought.
  • Buffalo (+3) @ New York Jets - The AFC East minus the Patriots is a combined 3-17. This game will probably end tied, even after overtime.
  • Houston (+11.5) @ San Diego - That's a large spread. The Texans aren't great but should keep it close for the most part
  • Jacksonville (+4.5) @ Tampa Bay - The battle for the best team in Florida. AFC>NFC
  • New Orleans (-3) @ San Francisco -
  • Washington (+16) @ New England - Washington has a good secondary but can they generate enough of a pass rush to hurry Tom Brady?
Monday Night Football
  • Green Bay @ Denver (-3) - The Broncos got a much needed win, but they need to keep it going.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Breaking News: Chris Chambers Traded to San Diego


Yes, you read the title correctly. Here are my initial reactions.

  • This is the first domino to fall in the rebuilding process.
  • If the Dolphins can go 0-6 WITH Chris Chambers, then we can afford to go 0-6 WITHOUT him.
  • Ted Ginn, Jr. must be the guy to slide into the starting WR position. This makes us happy here at TG&T
  • A 2nd round draft pick (no matter how close is it towards the 3rd round) is more than I thought we could get for him. If this is true, then we got a good value for this trade, in my opinion.
  • This trade makes sense. Name a wide receiver for the Chargers. Most would say Antonio Gates, and while he's the best receiver on that team, he plays tight end. San Diego needed a good receiver for the final dimension of that offense. The Dolphins meanwhile need to get 9th overall pick on the field more and acquire young talent for the defense.
  • It is still sad to see Chambers leave. He has been a Dolphin ever since we drafted him in 2001 (a rare good pick by us). He has been a hard worker and gave us consistent production. He made the pro bowl in 2005.
Your thoughts?

Picks Against the Spread - Week 7

Last week: 4-7-2. Two pushes? Vegas needs to stop making three point spreads.
Season thus far: 13-27-2. If you picked all the teams I bet against, you'd be a rich man.

Dolphins this week

  • New England @ Miami (+17) - I thought the spread would be higher, either way I'll take the points and hope the Patriots don't run up the score like they did this week.
Games of the Week
  • Indianapolis (-3) @ Jacksonville - The Colts need to keep pace with the Patriots but the Jaguars need to keep pace with the Colts. Good job by ESPN to snatch this one up for Monday Night Football this year.
  • Tampa Bay @ Detroit (-1) - Coming into this year, I thought this would be a Game of the Weak, instead it's a key match up to distinguish the good from the mediocre in the NFC.
The Rest
  • San Francisco (+10) @ New York Giants - Are the Giants the hottest team in the NFC? Their schedule sets up nicely for them to be 6-2 for their week ten game against Dallas.
  • Tennessee (-1) @ Houston - This is a must win if either of these teams want to keep pace with the Colts and Jaguars.
  • Arizona @ Washington (-7) - Ouch, both Leinart and Warner are out and now they turn to Tim Rattay. The Redskins need to take advantage of this.
  • Atlanta (+7.5) @ New Orleans - Game of the Weak. Did the Saints finally show up for the 2007 season or was it just a bad performance by the Seahawks last week?
  • Baltimore (-3) @ Buffalo - The Ravens only two losses have come on the road to inferior opponents. They can't afford a similar letdown in the AFC.
  • Kansas City (+3) @ Oakland - Why are the Raiders favored? Is the AFC West this bad?
  • New York Jets @ Cincinnati (-6) - This is another Game of the Weak. Plus, each of these teams foolishly had playoff aspirations this year.
  • Chicago (+4.5) @ Philadelphia - This is crucial. Both of these teams were picked by some to be in the Super Bowl but are currently under .500%
  • St. Louis (+9) @ Seattle - The NFC West, Zzzzz.
  • Minnesota @ Dallas (-9.5) - Will Dallas start to struggle or can they just bounce back to being far superior to the rest of the NFC?
  • Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Denver - This looked like a great matchup in preseason. If the Steelers want to be in the same class as the Colts, they need to breeze through this one.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

First reaction...

The Dolphins lost 41-31. What a pathetic showing for the defense. They gave us absolutely no chance to win the game. Ted Ginn is looking better and should have scored if not for that bogus penalty. Let's hope the Cowboy's take care of the Patriots this afternoon.

Quick Preview and Prediction

Keys to the game for the Dolphins

  • Punish the Browns secondary. This may be the one unit that is as bad as Miami's secondary. They have allowed a league high 15 passing touchdowns. We must be able to make big plays in the passing game and finish off drives for touchdowns instead of field goals. Cleo Lemon gives the Dolphins more of a deep threat than Trent Green but he must protect the ball. Having to punt isn't the end of the world.
  • Defend the Run. We did a good job last week but we must keep it going. Our secondary is still no good and the only chance we have to succeed on defense is if we can shut down the run and play for the pass and hopefully make a few big plays. Jamal Lewis is out for the Browns which is a break for Miami, but the Dolphins have let unknown backup running backs run wild over them this year. No matter who lines up in the backfield we must limit big gains.
  • Finish the game. This shall only apply if we have a lead or are tied late in the game like last week. In Houston, after the two minute warning with the score tied at 19-19, we had a 2nd and 9 at the Texans 39. We looked poised to gain a few more yards, kick the field goal, and hold on for the win. However, we didn't execute and had to punt it away. Then the defense let Houston march from its own 3 yard line to our 40 to set up the winning field goal. If we get another chance to win on the road today we must make the final plays to seal the deal.
Prediction

Dolphins 30, Browns 28 - This should be a high scoring afternoon. Whichever defense can come up with the big plays and whichever offense makes the least mistakes will win this game.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Getting to Know the Cleveland Browns

First Five Weeks - Results

Pittsburgh Loss 34-7
Cincinnati Win 51-45
at Oakland Loss 26-24
Baltimore Win 27-14
at New England Loss 34-17


Offensive Statistics


Category Value NFL Rank
Points per game 25.5 7th
Total yards per game 348.6 8th
Rushing yards per game 110.2 16th
Rushing yards per attempt 4.8 3rd
Passing yards per game 238.4 9th
Passing yards per attempt 7.6 10th
Total yards per play 5.9 5th

Defensive Statistics

Category Value NFL Rank
Points per game 30.4 30th
Total yards per game 424.4 32nd
Rushing yards per game 157.4 30th
Rushing yards per attempt 4.9 29th
Passing yards per game 267 31st
Passing yards per attempt 7.2 17th
Total yards per play 6 28th

We should be able to move the ball on offense but we must avoid costly turnovers. Also, we need to score touchdowns instead of field goals. On defense we must continue to stop the run. The Browns should try to pick on our secondary like the Texans did. Whoever is playing safety must make a few plays to keep us in the game.


Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Week 6 Picks Against the Spread

Last Week - (7-7)
Overall - (9-20)


Miami Dolphins This Week

  • Miami (+4.5) @ Cleveland - Miami has lost all three of their road games by three points.
Games of the Week
  • New England @ Dallas (+4.5) - I'll give Dallas a pass for that trap game. In fact, the added emotion from that thrilling victory may help them in this tough showdown.
  • Washington @ Green Bay (-3) - The Redskins are one play away from being 4-0, but the Pack won't lose two in a row at Lambeau Field.
  • Carolina @ Arizona (-4.5) - Both teams are 3-2. How will David Carr and Matt Leinart fare as full time starting quarterbacks?
The Rest
  • Cincinnati @ Kansas City (+3)
  • Houston (+7) @ Jacksonville - This is a crucial game in a division where everyone is a contender. -
  • Minnesota @ Chicago (-6) - Can the Bears continue to rebound or was their Sunday night performance an aberration?
  • Philadelphia (-3) @ New York Jets - When will the Jets realize they should play Kellen Clemens?
  • St. Louis (+10) @ Baltimore - The Ravens need to show me that they can score 10 points before I say they will cover 10 points.
  • Tennessee (+3) @ Tampa Bay - Two surprise teams, I like Tennessee's defense.
  • Oakland @ San Diego (-10.5) - It's okay everyone, the Chargers have finally shown up
  • New Orleans @ Seattle (-6.5) - The Saints have to win sometime, don't they?
Monday Night Football
  • New York Giants (-3.5) @ Atlanta - I'll take just about anybody against Atlanta right now.

AFC Power Rankings - Week 6

The Elite

  • (1a) New England - Let's see how they handle their first tough opponent, an emotionally charged 5-0 Dallas side.
  • (1b) Indianapolis - Will have the opportunity to gain sole possession of the top spot week nine against the Patriots
  • (3) Pittsburgh - They are inching closer towards the top, you have to believe they would be able to beat New England or Indianapolis on a good day.
The Good
  • (4) Tennessee - When you have a good defense and can run the ball well you are in good shape
  • (5) Jacksonville - A couple nice wins on the road, A couple big division games coming up
  • (6) Baltimore - Should be playing better, dropping those division games might cost them down the road
  • (7) San Diego - A 41-3 drubbing of the Broncos in Denver shows they are ready to begin the 2007 season, finally.
The Bad
  • (8) Houston - They needed a magical performance from their kicker (5 fg's, including a 57 yard game winner) to beat the worst team in the AFC at home
  • (9) Oakland - They have already matched last seasons win total. Don't be surprised if they can triple that total before this campaign is over.
  • (10) Cleveland - They get Miami, a bye week and then St Louis. They should end up 4-3.
  • (11) Kansas City - No consistency, they beat the Chargers and follow it up with a stinker at home to Jacksonville
  • (12) Denver - They've lost three in a row and were lucky to win their first two. They need to turn things around quickly
  • (13) Cincinnati - Yeah they've played good teams, but your record is what it is, and it's not good enough
The Ugly
  • (14) Buffalo - How in the world did they lose that game? Well, if you only score three points on offense, you won't win many games.
  • (15) New York - Their only win came against the team right below them, it'll be a long season for a team that foolishly had playoff aspirations.
  • (16) Miami - The effort and improvement are there, but the win column is still empty.

Monday, October 08, 2007

Monday Morning Quarterback

The Trent Green injury is discussed in the previous post.

The Dolphins should not have attempted a 56 yard field goal with 1:51 remaining. Jay Feely isn't a good at field goals from 50+ yards. If he were to miss or have it blocked, the Dolphins would have been screwed, we just couldn't trust our defense. We should have wasted more time though. We had a 2nd and 9 on the 38 after the two minute warning. In my opinion, we should have ran it twice, or at least on second down. We were running the ball well and only needed another four or five yards to get to a range of field goal that we should have attempted. Instead we threw two incompletions and the Texans were able to save all of their timeouts. Of course our secondary is a collection of players who should be on a practice squad so the Texans hit a few passes and were able to attempt a 57 yard game winning field goal. This is a different situation. There is no risk, if he misses or it's blocked, then regulation is over and we go to overtime. When the opposing teams kicker makes two 54 yarders and a 57 yard game winner, then you weren't meant to win that game. I feel bad for the 'Phins because they are trying hard and are getting close but the team just isn't that good.

The offense was good again. Quarterback replacement Cleo Lemon wasn't terrible. He could have been better but he didn't lose us the game and we were in position to win. Ronnie Brown had another great day of tough running but it wasn't enough. The reason why, is the red zone offense. I don't think we have a philosophy for the red zone and it shows. We settle for way too many field goals. If we could have turned one of them into a touchdown yesterday, then we would have won

The defense was a little better. They were able to stop the run finally, but it could have been due to Ahman Green's absence. Unfortunately though, the Texans picked on our secondary and Cameron Worrell in particular. He was the next contestant on "Who wants to play safety for the Miami Dolphins?" He lost and he was injured, I don't think we will see much more of him. I never thought I'd say this but, I hope Jason Allen starts next week. He was once a #16 overall draft pick, he has to make a play or two, right?

The special teams were also better. What can you say about Jay Feely, he's been a complete stud so far. Rookie punter Brandon Fields is improving, especially on the pooch punts. Our kick and punt coverage was a little better, not allowing any huge returns. Finally, our man Ted Ginn is showing improvement. His first kick return was 53 yards out to midfield, and he is finally going more north and south rather than east and west.

It was another heart breaker for the Dolphins, but what did you expect? They find a new and interesting way to lose each week. The team is getting better and will get some wins soon, but for now the team is just not very good and struggling to get the first W.

Trent Green Incident

Trent Green

It was a scary site when he lay motionless on the field. It ended up looking worse than it was. The official diagnosis is a concussion and he was released from the hospital and traveled home with the team. While watching the event unfold live, I immediately thought his career was over. Coming into this season you would have to believe any blow to the head might do him in. We'll see what the rest of the season has in store for him and whether or not he is healthy enough and permitted to play. For all Dolphins fans who were saying he sucks and should be benched, that is definitely not the way for it to happen.

Travis Johnson

Travis is the Texans player whose knee delivered the hit to Greens helmet while Trent was trying to chip him. When the play was over and Green lay face down motionless on the field, Johnson stood over and taunted him, drawing a 15 yard penalty. This was a classless play that got me about as upset as the injury itself. While the game went on, I was thinking to myself that I should give him a pass because it was in the heat of the moment and he didn't really know how hurt Trent might be. I knew Johnson ought to feel terrible after seeing him stretchered off the field.

Well it turns out I was wrong. Even after the game knowing what had happened, he had some interesting comments about the incident (At this time, if you haven't heard or read about his comments you should read this article, from the Miami Herald). First of all, it was a broken play and quarterbacks don't know how to block. Also, that type of block isn't against the rules and wasn't a penalty. How else do you expect a 37 year old non athletic quarterback to block a 300+ pound lineman in stride? To say that Trent Green, a player who has shown nothing but class, had intent to injure is incorrect. Secondly, to imply that he got what he deserved is an absolute disgrace.

The Houston Texans and the NFL probably won't fine or suspend him, which is okay by me. I just hope some players or coaches pull him aside and let him know how wrong he was about this whole situation.

Update

Peter King of Sports Illustrated discusses this further in his column this morning and was able to exchange text messages with Trent. The full article is here.

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Gameday - Quick Analysis and Prediction

Dolphins Injuries

  • Vonnie Holliday and Travares Tillman are out.
  • Channing Crowder, Donovan Darius and Zach Thomas are questionable
Texans Injuries
  • Andre Johnson and Jerome Mathis are out
  • Jacoby Jones is doubtful
  • Ahman Green is questionable
When the Texans have the ball...

They should try to rely on the running game. The Dolphins have the worst run defense and the Texans are still without their best receiving threat. If the Dolphins can improve against the run, they could give the team a good chance to win. However, if the Texans can run the ball it'll be another long day for the defense

When the Dolphins have the ball...

They should stick to their plan of featuring Ronnie Brown in the running and short passing game. The Texans defense will prove to be tougher than the Jets and the Raiders but if Brown can repeat what he has been doing then the game should be Miami's to win. Trent Green must take care of the ball and not throw costly interceptions.

Intangibles
  • The Dolphins have never beaten the Texans.
  • With the amount of upsets in college football, anything is possible.
  • Ronnie Brown is trying to become just the second player to amass 200 yards from scrimmage in three straight games. Walter Payton is the only one to accomplish that feat.
Prediction

This should be a close one throughout, but when the Dolphins will need to get the ball back, the defense won't be able to get off the field. The Texans will get a late field goal to push the lead to seven with not enough time for the 'Phins to drive down the field.
- Texans 27, Dolphins 20

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Miami Dolphins QB Situation

The Dolphins are 0-4 and while the defense has been getting most of the blame, Trent Green has been part of the problem as well. Let's examine his performance so far.

84/139, 982 yds, 5 TD, 7 Int. That last number is the big one. You could also add another one (the dropped pick in Washington in the final minutes) if you feel like it. He has looked great at times but has also made some poor decisions. His interceptions have come at costly times and always seem to result in points for the opposition. On the other hand, he has put together some nice drives at critical points to get back in games, which was something we didn't see a lot of last year.

A lot of people are insisting we start our rookie second round draft pick, John Beck. He are the issues to think about

  • The team won't be challenging for a playoff spot, so if he doesn't win many games, it's not a huge loss. We could end up with a high draft pick if we continue to struggle. I am under the belief, however, that wins are more important than climbing up the draft board.
  • Barring injury, he could start 12 games. That's a lot of experience. Rookie quarterbacks rarely do well and most say they shouldn't take a single snap in their first season, but look at Ben Roethlisburger. He did pretty well his first year and won the Super Bowl his second. The theory that rookie quarterbacks never do well and always end up being ruined is a trend, not a fact.
  • He's already 26. He went on a Mormon mission for two years before entering BYU, so he is older and more mature than most rookie quarterbacks. The longer he sits, the older he gets. If you finally found a franchise quarterback, you don't want him to be settling in already approaching 30.
  • Our trade for Green was a conditional pick. If he plays 70% or more of the teams snaps this year, it's a 4th round pick. If he doesn't then it's a 5th round pick.
Then there is Cleo Lemon. He is 28 and has some experience in Cam Cameron's system (in San Diego). He has only started one game (last years finale) and doesn't have much NFL game experience.

Finally, my take.

Four games isn't enough time to evaluate a QB. While Trent Green hasn't played great, he has shown flashes while trying to overcome our horrendous defense. The day our defense and special teams units show up, he should give us a good chance to win. He should at least start all the games before the bye week (four more games). Barring a miracle turnaround (we would have to be 4-4) he should be benched regardless of his performance. The final eight games should go to the younger QB's. Trent Green won't be starting here next year (unless previous said miracle turnaround occurs and continues), so Cleo Lemon and John Beck should get the final eight games, split up however the coaches feel. If it were me I would start Beck, week ten at home against Buffalo. If he struggles, then perhaps go to Lemon in later games. This should give Beck a great opportunity to get some game experience so he will be better equipped for the start of next season (which most Dolphins fans are looking forward to already). Trent Green will have to do what he was mainly brought here to do (impart his wisdom on Beck and Lemon while holding a clipboard on the sidelines).

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Picks Against the Spread - Week 5

Hey, if I go 13-1 I will climb over .500%.

Dolphins this week

  • Miami @ Houston (-5.5) - Full preview and prediction coming sometime this afternoon.
Games of the Week
  • Detroit @ Washington (-3.5)- Two somewhat surprise teams in the NFC. Can the Lions move to 4-1 and continue to play like Jon Kitna said they would? Can the Redskins move to 3-1 and remain in front of the surging Giants?
  • Seattle (+6) @ Pittsburgh - Super Bowl XL rematch. Seattle is still complaining about the officiating. Did Arizona expose Pittsburgh last week or was that just an aberration?
  • Baltimore (-3.5) @ San Francisco - Both teams have playoff aspirations and both fell to 2-2 last week, this is perhaps a turning point for their seasons.
The Rest
  • Arizona (-3.5) @ St. Louis
  • Atlanta (+8) @ Tennessee
  • Carolina @ New Orleans (-3.5)
  • Cleveland @ New England (-16.5)
  • Jacksonville @ Kansas City (+2)
  • NY Jets @ NY Giants (-3.5)
  • Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis (-9.5)
  • Chicago (+3) @ Green Bay
  • San Diego (+1) @ Denver
Monday Night Football
  • Dallas (-10) @ Buffalo - The Cowboys are due for a letdown but not this week.

Pick's against the spread - Week 4 results

I'm off to a very Dolphins-esque start. I got two correct and thirteen wrong! (thanks to Buffalo and Arizona for saving me from a 1976 Buccaneers-esque performance).

Total Embarrassment

It's a sad time when the quarterback you had escorted off your practice facility in training camp comes back to your place and taunts you. Daunte Culpepper got the start for the Raiders and mode the most of it. He didn't light things up like his Minnesota days (he only 75 yds passing and 28 yds rushing), but he accounted for all five of Oakland's touchdowns, including the, "kick them when they are down," 4th and goal in the final minute of the game. I was one to say we should try to hang on to Culpepper, whether or not we had Trent Green. It is understandable, however, that the organization didn't want a QB troika of,

1. A 37 year old who with one hit to the head could be sent into retirement
2. A 30 year old whose knee could be in worse shape than Dan Marino's currently.
3. A 26 year old rookie who has never taken a snap in the NFL (John Beck).

Part of me is happy for Daunte. He has been one of the most athletically gifted quarterbacks in the league and is eager to show that his success isn't dependent on having Randy Moss lining up at wideout. On the other hand, I wouldn't advise him or his fans to think he is back. He was able to make a few plays on the oldest and what I will now say is the worst defense in the NFL (seriously, Justin Fargas?).

On a better note, Ronnie Brown had his second straight outing with LT-like numbers (200+ yards from scrimmage). In the last two weeks he has 38 rushes for 246 yards and 12 receptions for 172 yards and 4 total touchdowns. The highlight of the day was his touchdown run over B.J. Ward.

I'll have more throughout the week including

  • Patriots 16-0?
  • Bench Trent Green?
  • How to defend the run