Divisional Round: Ravens at Titans

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
Saturday January 10th, 4:30 PM
Favorite: Titans (-3)

Why the Ravens Will Win: Ed Reed and the Baltimore defense are other-worldly. They simply take over a game and win it all on their own. In the wild card game they were able to frustrate Miami and get them totally out of their element. Not only does the defense hold opponents to low point totals, they set up their offense in good field position and also score themselves. That is tough for opponents to overcome. The Ravens offense is nothing to write home about, but they are able to run the ball when it is needed most, especially late in the game with a lead. Punter Sam Koch is also a huge asset in the field position game.

Why the Titans Will Win: Tennessee is a lot like Miami but better. They run between the tackles better and pose more of a big play threat in the running game. On defense, Albert Haynesworth leads a great run stopping unit and they force turnovers as well. The Titans will be able to get a better pass rush on rookie Joe Flacco and force him into mistakes he didn't make last weekend.

Prediction: Every thing would seem to point to the Ravens, and that's why I will pick the Titans. They play very well at home and will get out to an early lead. That changes things a lot for Baltimore. I also think that Flacco will make one mistake that will set up a field goal or touchdown for the Titans. In the end, that will be the difference.

Titans 20, Ravens 16

Offseason: Day 1

I had forgotten how disappointing it is to lose in the playoffs, no matter the circumstances are. The thing that you always forget, is the finality of it all. Of course you go into every game knowing that if you lose, then that's it, no more games and the season over, but once it happens, it is always a stunning realization. And just like that, we are into day one of the offseason. 2009 will feature another tough set of challenges for the Dolphins, much different than 2008, but still tough. Lofty expectations will return, along with a more difficult schedule, and the fact that Miami is now part of the hunted rather than being the hunter. Here are a few things I will being doing on this blog between now and the beginning of training camp.

• Write-ups About the Top Areas of Concern: Pretty soon, I will explain what I perceive to be the team's areas of most concern going into the offseason. This is not simply a listing of what we need in the draft or free agency, but rather a more in depth look at what the team needs to do to get even better next year.
• Full Coverage of the Free Agency Period: Last year Miami signed several guys on day one and made many moves throughout the offseason. I doubt we will make a similar amount of noise this year, but it will still be an important time to track incoming and outgoing players.*
• Draft Previews: This year will be much different, since we don't have the number one pick, but we still have three selections in the top sixty and nine total selections in the draft. We saw this year what an impact good draft picks can make in the first year and the draft is the most vital component of long term success in this league.
• Other NFL Thoughts: I will also throw in a few posts about general NFL questions and issues. Also stay tuned for playoff game previews and predictions surely to go wrong (even though I managed to go 2-2 this weekend).
  

*I suggest taking a look at a recent post from the Miami Dolphins Spotlight blog by Chris Nelson, who lists all of the Dolphins different types of free agents and briefly explain what each means. The key names to look at are the unrestricted free agents.

Congratulations Baltimore Ravens

I'm too disappointed to write a post of real length but just wanted to say congratulations to the Ravens. They were better today and this year. Great season for the Dolphins and if they keep improving then they will be in great shape for next year. MY pick for the late game by the way is for the Eagles to win 28-17

Wild Card Weekend: Baltimore at Miami

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Sunday January 4th, 1:00 PM, CBS
Dolphin Stadium
Favorite: Ravens (-3.5)

In an earlier post I detailed why Miami could win the game so I'll start off this section describing why Baltimore could instead advance. The Ravens defense is awesome. There aren't enough words to accurately depict it's awesomeness. They lead the league in forcing turnovers and frequently dominate games. Because most everybody has the belief that defense wins championships, Baltimore enters this game not only viewed as the favorite but also thought of to be the team that can make a run to the Super Bowl from a wild card spot. Another key in the playoffs is the running game, which is another area where the Ravens excel. The emergence of fullback Le'Ron McClain gives them a bruiser who can get tough yards and help the offensive line dominate the trenches. I just feel though that the Dolphins offense, which led the league in fewest turnovers, will be able to avoid mistakes and on the other side, a rookie quarterback (even though he's a stellar rookie) will make a couple errors.

Pick: Miami 17, Baltimore 16

Wild Card Weekend: Indianapolis at San Diego

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) vs San Diego Chargers (8-8)

Saturday January 3rd, 8:00 PM, NBC
Favorite: Colts (-1)

The Chargers seem to be getting a lot of play from the media as being "the scariest team in the AFC." I understand the reasoning but let's take a look at their four game run to .500% and a division title. They beat a below average Raiders team at home. Then they needed a minor miracle to come back and beat the 2-14 Chiefs. A road win at Tampa Bay looked impressive at the time, but considering the Bucs then lost to the Raiders and finished up losing four in a row, it wasn't that great. The Chargers then of course finished up by beating the fading Broncos at home who were already defeated before the game started. Not to take anything away from the accomplishment, but San Diego still lost eight games, and is a mediocre team. The Colts haven't been dominant in their nine game win streak, but they are doing much of things they did in their Super Bowl run two years ago. The defense is playing better and Peyton Manning is playing more of a manage the game style, rather than compiling gaudy stats. It still earned him the MVP and I like their chances this postseason.

Pick: Indianapolis 28, San Diego 24

Wild Card Weekend: Atlanta at Arizona

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) vs Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Saturday January 3rd, 4:30 PM, NBC
University of Phoenix Stadium
Favorite: Falcons (-1)

I haven't thought too highly of the Cardinals this year. They have feasted on a week division for six of their nine wins and have not played very well on the road. They also don't have a particularly good defense (19th in YPG and 28th in PPG). For a while, I was fairly certain they would not win a playoff game this season, but as the year went on I began to feel like they might be able to win one at home, depending on the matchup. Atlanta has had an awesome season and an even brighter future. For this game though, I think it will be tough. They have boh a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback, and while those guys have done as good of a job as anybody, it get's significantly more difficult in the playoffs. It would be very wise of the Falcons to grab an early lead and hope that doubt seeps into the Cardinals minds. It will be a long day if they are trying to chase the game and come from behind against the high flying offense of Arizona.

Pick: Arizona 31, Atlanta 24